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2009 Queensland state election

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2009 Queensland state election

← 2006 21 March 2009 (2009-03-21) 2012 →

All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Turnout90.93 (Increase 0.46 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
ON
Leader Anna Bligh Lawrence Springborg Rosa Lee Long
Party Labor Liberal National One Nation
Leader since 13 September 2007 (2007-09-13) 21 January 2008 (2008-01-21) 7 February 2004 (2004-02-07)
Leader's seat South Brisbane Southern Downs Tablelands
(lost seat)
Last election 59 seats, 46.92% 25 seats, 37.92%[a] 1 seat, 0.60%
Seats won 51 seats 34 seats 0
Seat change Decrease8 Increase9 Decrease1
Popular vote 1,002,415 987,018 9,038
Percentage 42.25% 41.60% 0.38%
Swing Decrease4.67 Increase3.68[a] Decrease0.22
TPP 50.9% 49.1%
TPP swing Decrease4.1 Increase4.1

Winning margin by electorate.

Premier before election

Anna Bligh
Labor

Elected Premier

Anna Bligh
Labor


The 2009 Queensland state election was held on 21 March 2009 to elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly, a unicameral parliament.

The election saw the incumbent Labor government led by Premier Anna Bligh defeat the Liberal National Party of Queensland led by Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg, and gain a fifth consecutive term in office for her party. Bligh thus became the first female Premier of any Australian State elected in her own right.[1]

This was the first election contested by the LNP following its creation with the merger of the National and Liberal parties.

The 2009 election marked the eighth consecutive victory of Labor in a general election since 1989, although it was out of office between 1996 and 1998 as a direct result of the 1996 Mundingburra by-election.


Background

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The Labor Party, led by Premier Anna Bligh, and the LNP, led by Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg, were the two main parties in Queensland at the election. It was the first election contested by the LNP following its creation with the merger of the National and Liberal parties. At the previous election, Labor won 59 seats, the Nationals won 17 seats, the Liberals won eight seats, One Nation won one seat, and independents won four seats. Former Labor MP Ronan Lee joined the Greens in 2008, thus becoming their parliamentary leader. Lee lost his seat at the election.[2]

A redistribution saw Labor notionally pick up three seats. Therefore, the LNP notionally needed to pick up 22 seats rather than 20 seats to form a majority government, which equated to an unchanged uniform 8.3 percent two party preferred swing.[3]

Former Premier Peter Beattie resigned in September 2007, which triggered the October 2007 Brisbane Central by-election.

Key dates

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Date Event
23 February 2009 Writs were issued by the Governor to proceed with an election.[4]
28 February 2009 Close of electoral rolls
3 March 2009 Close of nominations
21 March 2009 Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
26 March 2009 The Bligh Ministry was reconstituted[5]
7 April 2009 The writ was returned and the results formally declared
12 April 2009 53rd Parliament convened

Electoral redistribution

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A redistribution of electoral boundaries occurred in 2008.

The electorates of Charters Towers, Cunningham, Darling Downs, Fitzroy, Kurwongbah, Mount Gravatt, Robina, and Tablelands were abolished.

The electorates of Buderim, Condamine, Coomera, Dalrymple, Mermaid Beach, Morayfield, Pine Rivers, and Sunnybank were created.

The redistribution merged Charters Towers with Tablelands to create Dalrymple, Fitzroy into Mirani, and Cunningham with Darling Downs to create Condamine, all in regional Queensland. Buderim was created on the Sunshine Coast, Morayfield in the corridor north of Brisbane, and Coomera was created on the Gold Coast. Kurwongbah was renamed Pine Rivers, Mount Gravatt was renamed Sunnybank, and Robina was renamed Mermaid Beach. Burdekin, Clayfield, and Mirani notionally became Labor-held, while Glass House notionally became National-held.

The changes resulted in 62 notionally Labor-held seats, 8 notionally Liberal-held seats, 15 notionally National-held seats, and 4 notionally Independent-held seats.

Results

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Winning party by electorate.
The Gallagher Index result: 12.47

Queensland state election, 21 March 2009[6]
Legislative Assembly
<< 20062012 >>

Enrolled voters 2,660,940
Votes cast 2,419,559 Turnout 90.93 +0.46
Informal votes 46,908 Informal 1.94 –0.14
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,002,415 42.25 –4.67 51 –8
  Liberal National 987,018 41.60 +3.68 34 +9
  Greens 198,475 8.37 +0.38 0 ±0
  DS4SEQ 22,170 0.93 +0.93 0 ±0
  Family First 19,379 0.82 –1.07 0 ±0
  One Nation 9,038 0.38 –0.22 0 –1
  Independent 134,156 5.65 +0.97 4 ±0
Total 2,372,651     89  
Two-party-preferred
  Labor 50.9 −4.1
  Liberal National 49.1 +4.1
* The two-party preferred summary is an estimate by Antony Green using a methodology by Malcolm Mackerras.
Popular vote
Labor
42.45%
LNP
41.60%
Greens
8.37%
DS4SEQ
0.93%
Family First
0.82%
One Nation
0.38%
Independents
5.65%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
50.9%
LNP
49.1%
Seats
Labor
57.30%
LNP
38.20%
Independents
4.49%

Seats changing hands

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Seat 2008 Redistribution Swing 2009 Election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Aspley   Labor Bonny Barry 3.0 -7.46 4.46 Tracy Davis Liberal National  
Burdekin Labor notional 0.9 -4.05 3.15 Rosemary Menkens Liberal National
Clayfield Labor notional 0.3 -6.14 5.84 Tim Nicholls Liberal National
Cleveland Labor Phil Weightman 1.2 -1.48 0.28 Mark Robinson Liberal National
Coomera Labor notional 8.3 -10.21 1.91 Michael Crandon Liberal National
Gaven Labor Phil Gray 3.2 -3.92 0.72 Alex Douglas Liberal National
Hervey Bay Labor Andrew McNamara 2.1 -8.60 6.50 Ted Sorensen Liberal National
Indooroopilly Labor Ronan Lee¹ 2.7 -8.57 5.87 Scott Emerson Liberal National
Mirani Labor Jim Pearce 1.2 -1.79 0.59 Ted Malone Liberal National
Mudgeeraba Labor Dianne Reilly 2.7 -6.62 3.92 Ros Bates Liberal National
Redlands Labor John English 6.7 -6.77 0.07 Peter Dowling Liberal National
  • Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • ¹ Ronan Lee was elected as a member of the Labor Party, but resigned and joined the Greens.
  • The Liberal National Party retained the seat of Glass House which had a notional Liberal National margin.

Post-election pendulum

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Government seats
Marginal
Chatsworth Steve Kilburn ALP 0.14%
Everton Murray Watt ALP 1.39%
Broadwater Peta-Kaye Croft ALP 2.03%
Cook Jason O'Brien ALP 2.24%
Barron River Steve Wettenhall ALP 2.32%
Toowoomba North Kerry Shine ALP 3.22%
Whitsunday Jan Jarratt ALP 3.24%
Southport Peter Lawlor ALP 3.48%
Townsville Mandy Johnstone ALP 4.02%
Springwood Barbara Stone ALP 4.08%
Cairns Desley Boyle ALP 4.15%
Mansfield Phil Reeves ALP 4.39%
Ferny Grove Geoff Wilson ALP 4.49%
Pine Rivers Carolyn Male ALP 4.61%
Kallangur Mary-Anne O'Neill ALP 4.63%
Mount Ommaney Julie Attwood ALP 4.79%
Burleigh Christine Smith ALP 4.90%
Pumicestone Carryn Sullivan ALP 4.99%
Mount Coot-tha Andrew Fraser ALP 5.25%
Redcliffe Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 5.57%
Mount Isa Betty Kiernan ALP 5.72%
Brisbane Central Grace Grace ALP 5.97%
Fairly Safe
Albert Margaret Keech ALP 6.47%
Mundingburra Lindy Nelson-Carr ALP 6.59%
Greenslopes Cameron Dick ALP 6.94%
Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP 7.10%
Murrumba Dean Wells ALP 7.21%
Stafford Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 7.29%
Keppel Paul Hoolihan ALP 7.62%
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 7.77%
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 8.08%
Thuringowa Craig Wallace ALP 8.47%
Yeerongpilly Simon Finn ALP 8.73%
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 9.13%
Algester Karen Struthers ALP 9.21%
Stretton Stephen Robertson ALP 9.48%
Ipswich West Wayne Wendt ALP 9.55%
Capalaba Michael Choi ALP 9.67%
Safe
Sunnybank Judy Spence ALP 10.79%
Lytton Paul Lucas ALP 12.21%
Sandgate Vicky Darling ALP 12.37%
Logan John Mickel ALP 13.93%
Nudgee Neil Roberts ALP 14.26%
South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP 15.01%
Waterford Evan Moorhead ALP 16.46%
Ipswich Rachel Nolan ALP 16.71%
Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP 16.72%
Rockhampton Robert Schwarten ALP 17.92%
Very Safe
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 21.23%
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 21.53%
Woodridge Desley Scott ALP 25.37%
Non-government seats
Marginal
Redlands Peter Dowling LNP 0.07%
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP 0.28%
Mirani Ted Malone LNP 0.59%
Gaven Alex Douglas LNP 0.72%
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.91%
Burdekin Rosemary Menkens LNP 3.15%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 3.92%
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 4.46%
Dalrymple Shane Knuth LNP 5.18% v ONP
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 5.81%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 5.84%
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP 5.87%
Fairly Safe
Bundaberg Jack Dempsey LNP 6.02%
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 6.20%
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 6.50%
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 6.89%
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 6.93%
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP 7.61%
Toowoomba South Mike Horan LNP 8.22%
Beaudesert Aidan McLindon LNP 8.31%
Safe
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 10.81%
Burnett Rob Messenger LNP 11.10%
Moggill Bruce Flegg LNP 11.28%
Condamine Ray Hopper LNP 11.56% v IND
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 12.80%
Gregory Vaughan Johnson LNP 14.26%
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP 14.28%
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP 14.69%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.52%
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP 19.36%
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP 19.85%
Very Safe
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP 21.08%
Warrego Howard Hobbs LNP 24.38%
Gympie David Gibson LNP 27.21%
Crossbench seats
Nanango Dorothy Pratt IND 2.90% v LNP
Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND 6.13% v ALP
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND 16.31% v LNP
Maryborough Chris Foley IND 16.83% v LNP

Subsequent changes

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Polling

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Newspoll polling was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at around ±3 percent.

Better Premier ratings^
Date Labor
Bligh
Coalition/LNP
Springborg
18 – 19 Mar 2009 53% 33%
27 Feb – 8 Mar 2009 48% 34%
Jan – Feb 2009 48% 31%
Oct – Dec 2008 49% 30%
Jul – Sep 2008 53% 27%
Apr – Jun 2008 60% 24%
Jan – Mar 2008 64% 18%
Oct – Dec 2007 66% 11%2
Jul – Sep 2007 54%1 25%2
Apr – Jun 2007 54%1 19%2
Pre 2006 election 58%1 28%
Pre 2004 election 62%1 22%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Peter Beattie, 2 Jeff Seeney
Legislative Assembly opinion polling
Political parties Two party preferred
Dates ALP Lib Nat LNP Grn FFP Oth ALP LNP
18 – 19 Mar 2009 42% 42% 7% 0.5% 8% 49.9% 50.1%
27 Feb – 8 Mar 2009 41% 43% 8% <0.5% 8% 49% 51%
Jan – Feb 2009 42% 41% 7% <0.5% 10% 53% 47%
Oct – Dec 2008 45% 37% 8% <0.5% 10% 57% 43%
Jul – Sep 2008 38% 41% 9% 1% 11% 51% 49%
Apr – Jun 2008 43% 26% 12% 38% 10% <0.5% 9% 55% 45%
Jan – Mar 2008 50% 22% 10% 32% 8% <0.5% 10% 60% 40%
Oct – Dec 2007 50% 26% 9% 35% 6% 1% 8% 59% 41%
Jul – Sep 2007 50% 21% 12% 33% 5% 2% 10% 59% 41%
Apr – Jun 2007 51% 20% 11% 31% 6% 1% 11% 61% 39%
2006 election 46.9% 20.1% 17.8% 37.9% 8.0% 1.9% 5.3% 55.0% 45.0%
6 – 7 Sep 2006 48% 21% 17% 38% 4% 1% 9% 55% 45%
2004 election 47% 18.5% 17% 35.5% 6.7% 4.9% 5.9% 55.5% 44.5%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Of the combined totals of the National and Liberal parties.

References

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  1. ^ "Queensland elects female premier". BBC News Online. 21 March 2009.
  2. ^ "Qld Labor MP jumps ship to Greens". ABC News. 5 October 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2018.
  3. ^ "2008 QLD redistribution". ABC. 21 March 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
  4. ^ "Election Timetable: 2009 State General Election". Electoral Commission of Queensland. Archived from the original on 17 March 2012.
  5. ^ Queensland, Gazette: Extraordinary Archived March 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine, No 71, 26 March 2009, 1307
  6. ^ ECQ. "Parliament of Queensland, Assembly election, 21 March 2009". Archived from the original on 26 February 2011.
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